Clay, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

193
FXUS61 KBGM 141338
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
938 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Multiple adjustments have been made to the forecast with the
mid-morning update. First, significantly increased cloud cover
for the remainder of this morning into this afternoon. Also
lowered hourly temperatures by a few degrees for this afternoon
due to this more extensive cloud cover. Finally, added in PoPs
for this morning for a round of showers moving through parts of
the Finger Lakes Region to the Mohawk Valley.

Although not a certainty, the increased cloud cover could lower
the severe weather threat for this afternoon/evening due to
less instability. Will continue to monitor.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cold front moving through the area will bring thunderstorms to
the area late this afternoon through the early evening. Some of
these thunderstorms may become strong to severe with damaging
winds or hail.

2) Benign weather is expected through around the middle of the
week, before an upper level trough will support the next
weather system to bring more rain showers and thunderstorms
starting on Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A cold front is expected to move through the area this
afternoon, bringing heavy rain showers and strong to severe
storms with it. With the front as the main forcing mechanism,
in combination with moderate to strong 0-6 bulk shear values of
40-50 knots (with pockets of over 50 knots), and CAPE values of
500-1000 J/kg, any storms that develop will have the potential
to produce strong to damaging winds. High shear values will help
to have a more distinct organization of storms into multi-
cluster or line segments, which could also lead to widespread
strong to damaging winds this type of storm organization,
rather than discrete cells. Timing looks to start in the mid-
afternoon in the Finger Lakes and western Central NY, and moving
east-southeastward going into the late afternoon and evening hours.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Going into next week, an upper level trough situated over Canada
will be the driver for the upcoming week`s weather. For the
first portion of the week, slightly below average to average
temperatures can be expected, with weak surface ridging keeping
chances for precipitation low. However, a shortwave riding along
the bottom of the trough deepens in a more organized area of low
pressure, tracking over the Great Lakes Thursday morning. There
is a lot of uncertainty currently, as the timing of the incoming
disturbance would determine the development and timing of
potential storms, as well as the positioning of the main low
center and how long the area would be under the warm sector
before any forcing mechanism comes along. Regardless of
uncertainty, active weather is expected starting Wednesday, and
likely stretching through the end of the week as the trough
helps to propagate shortwaves into the area, bringing chances
for showers and afternoon storms. Temperatures increase through
the week thanks to relative southwesterly flow.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions with sct to bkn high level clouds are expected
for the rest of the morning and early afternoon hours areawide.
Winds will turn southwesterly today, between 6-12 kts, with
gusts of 15-20 kts possible in the afternoon.

Later today, after 20Z or so, a front drops into NY from NW to
SE bringing a line of showers and thunderstorms. Right now,
thunderstorms has been put into tempo groups as confidence in
timing is increasing. Thunderstorm impacts are likely at some
point at all terminals between 20Z this afternoon and 03Z late
this evening.

After the thunderstorms move out, the flow turns northwesterly,
with lingering showers and mist around. This will keep MVFR
fuel alternate CIGs, and even IFR CIGs (ITH, BGM, RME, SYR)
around from about 02-09z. Then, there could be some slight
improvement at the end of this taf period toward 12z Monday.

Outlook:

Monday Morning: Lingering MVFR clouds and CIGs possible at or
around BGM, SYR and RME.

Monday Afternoon through Tuesday night...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday through Thursday...Showers likely with a chance of
thunderstorms especially each afternoon as multiple
disturbances pass through; associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJG/KL
AVIATION...MJM