Clay, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

671
FXUS61 KBGM 141146
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
646 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor adjustments to PoPs, QPF and the light
snow amounts were made for the shortwave that moves through tonight
into early Saturday morning. Minor increases to PoPs along and north
of I-90 Sunday night with the next weak clipper system. Still
uncertainty with the Wednesday system in regards to temperatures and
precipitation type.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A weak, fast moving clipper system moves through tonight into
early Saturday bringing light snow and snow showers to the area.

2) Temperatures trend warmer through the weekend with a slight
chance for snow showers or flurries Sunday night for northern
portion of Central NY and also NE PA.

3) Temperatures will continue to trend warmer early to midweek, but
then trend cooler toward the end of next week. A system moves
through Wednesday with rain, snow and a wintry mix possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A weak shortwave system will drop in from the north tonight. The
track remains consistent in the latest guidance today. Used a blend
of the latest HRRR, 3km NAM, WPC and NBM for PoPs, QPF and snow
amounts tonight into Saturday morning.

NBM guidance seemed a little too low with PoPs, even with the
progression of the CAMs, so PoPs were manually updated using the
latest CAMs guidance for the overnight hours. This seemed a bit more
reasonable and did not dry out conditions as this system dropped
further south into NEPA. The NBM/Conshort blend plus WPC guidance
were used for QPF to increase coverage of potential snowfall
accumulations. There will be some moisture with this system, so by
Saturday morning, some locations will see 0.5 to 2 inches (locally
up to 3" possible). The highest totals will be across the eastern
Finger Lakes, northern Susquehanna region, Syracuse metro area and
NW Oneida county where 1-3 inches is expected. Elsewhere, less than
an inch is expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Temperatures will trend warmer through the weekend, climbing into
the upper 30s and even lower 40s by Sunday. Overnight lows follow a
similar trend with 20s expected Sunday night.

Behind the departure of tonight`s system, west-northwest flow over
Lake Ontario & Finger Lakes will likely kick off light lake effect
snow showers and flurries that linger into Saturday morning. High
pressure and drier air should help cut off any lingering snow
showers by Saturday afternoon or Saturday night. It will remain
cloudy to mostly cloudy all day Saturday for most of the area.

The remainder of the weekend is trending drier with high pressure in
place. It will be partly sunny Sunday, with a light south wind and
seasonably mild temperatures in place.

There will be a low that moves across the Southeast Sunday
night but remains south of the region (except a slight chance for
flurries in NE PA). There is also a weak wave to the north that
clips northern NY. Both of these systems could just clip the region
with light snow showers or flurries but would not amount to much.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Temperatures will trend warmer through midweek, but how much so
remains somewhat uncertain. While it initially looked like a ridge
would set up over part of eastern CONUS, models are trending to a
more zonal pattern. This would favor cooler air occasionally dipping
back south over parts or all of the region. With that said, Monday
is still on track to reach the low to mid-40s and Tuesday will be
well into the 40s and perhaps even around 50 in the valleys of the
Southern Tier and NE PA. Skies will be partly sunny both days, with
dry weather expected. Overnight lows still look to dip down into the
upper 20s to low 30s for most locations, which will slow the snow
melt overnight and in the early morning.

Then midweek, a low moves across the Midwest with a frontal boundary
extending well east over our area. There remains uncertainties with
this system, though depending on the where the front sets up, this
would be favorable for a wintry mix or snow that could possibly
include localized freezing rain. The 12z ECMWF continues to be much
colder and snowier with the Wednesday system compared to the 12z GFS
and 12z CMC model guidance. The official forecast follows the
ensemble/NBM guidance at this point in time, to account for
uncertainty in temperatures and precipitation type with this system.

Behind this system, colder air dips south as temperatures trend
slightly cooler from the peak warmth earlier in the week.

As conditions warm, we will need to keep a close eye on the rivers
and streams. Warming temperatures will help melt snow but of there
is any rain as well, there could be enough runoff to dislodge ice
leading to additional ice jams.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NW flow brings MVFR/Fuel Alt ceilings across CNY today while
AVP should remain VFR. Guidance is showing ceilings lowering to
IFR across much of CNY tonight as weak high pressure moves
overhead and moisture gets trapped under a subsidence inversion
over CNY. Confidence currently is not high enough to include
IFR cigs in the TAFs for tonight, but the signal is there.


Outlook...

Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday night... Weak clipper system could bring snow showers
with associated restrictions.

Monday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR, possible restrictions
late Tuesday night into Wednesday with rain or wintry mix.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BTL
AVIATION...JTC